At a Glance
- Severe thunderstorms won't be widespread anywhere in the U.S. this week.
- That follows a stretch of two derechos the week after Beryl's tornadoes.
- 2024's tornado pace has only been topped by one other year since 2010.
- There have also been some other notable severe events, including hailstorms and damaging winds.
- More widespread severe weather can still happen in late summer, fall, even winter.
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Severe weather is largely taking this week off after a frenetic July stretch and a tornado pace higher than all but one other year since 2010.
Severe weather is taking some time off. While scattered thunderstorms will flare up at times across much of the Lower 48 states this week, few of them are expected to be severe. The combination of wind shear and unstable air isn't expected to be enough for outbreaks of severe weather.
(U.S. MAPS: Radar | Severe Weather Alerts)
July has been busy. First, Hurricane Beryl not only made landfall in Texas, knocking out power to millions for several days, but then spawned over 60 tornadoes from Texas to New York, the fifth most of any U.S. tropical cyclone on record.
Just days later, a pair of derechos tore through parts of the Plains and Midwest on July 13, then July 15. The latter derecho spawned over 40 tornadoes, including a one-day record tally for the area covered by the National Weather Service - Chicago office.
The day after the second derecho, a swarm of tornadoes tore through central and upstate New York. The Rome, New York, EF2 tornado was Oneida County's first strong tornado in almost 34 years.
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The tornado pace is well above average. Through July 22, the number of tornado reports tallied in the U.S. is the second highest since 2010. The 1,480 tornado reports this year is 461 more - 45 percent higher - than the average pace since 2010, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
This was largely due to a rash of severe weather later in spring, including the second most April-May tornadoes since 1950. While the pace slowed in June, the aforementioned Beryl, Midwest derecho and Northeast severe weather boosted the tornado count in July.
This year trails only 2011, which was boosted by the historic April Super Outbreak, among others.
Some state tornado tallies are eye-popping. As you'd expect, some of the classic tornado-prone states have been busy this year.
Oklahoma, for example, has already topped 100 confirmed tornadoes in 2024, their busiest year since 2019.
But there are also some outliers.
Ohio's 64 tornadoes are the Buckeye State's most in any year since 1950, according to the National Weather Service. That included an EF3 tornado in Auglaize and Logan Counties during the Pi Day outbreak on March 14.
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Iowa's unofficial tally of 113 tornadoes so far is already near the state's record since 1980 of 120 tornadoes in 2004. Neighboring Nebraska's unofficial tally of 94 tornadoes is also their most in any year since the 2004 record of 109 tornadoes.
And Wisconsin's 42 tornadoes are the state's most since 2010. That included the Badger State's first February tornado on record.
But some have been unusually unscathed, so far. Only 25 tornadoes have touched down so far this year in Mississippi, a state which had as many as 136 tornadoes just two years ago in 2022.
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Wind and hail have been typically numerous. So far in 2024, there have been about 1,200 more reports of thunderstorm high winds or wind damage than average through July 22. That sounds like a lot, but as this graph from NOAA/SPC shows, it's not that much more than the average of about 10,600 such reports.
Usually, most of these reports are either tree damage or power lines downed. It's the most common form of severe weather reported in the U.S.
Hail reports, however, have trended about 1,500 fewer than average-to-date. That said, you wouldn't know it by looking at SPC's year-to-date hail report map. Among the year's most notable hailstorms was a potential state-record setting hailstone in the Texas Panhandle in early June.
More severe weather lies ahead. While not among the most active months, severe weather in August can occur in the northern U.S. from the Plains to the Midwest and Northeast.
A very active hurricane season, including an increased chance of more U.S. landfalls, could mean more tornadoes spawned from the tropical cyclone itself, or its remnant well inland, as we saw with Beryl.
And swarms of severe thunderstorms can also happen in fall and winter, particularly in the South.
So, enjoy this lull in severe weather. It's not likely to last long.
MORE ON WEATHER.COM
- What Is A Derecho?
- 'Tornado Alley' Has Shifted, A New Study Says
- From 'Twister' To 'Twisters': How Tornado Science Has Changed Since 1996
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.
